Therm-a-Rest - NeoAir XTherm NXT MAX Sleeping Pad

Great summary! FWIW my (particularly specific) alternate take on sizing is: having a Neoair Xtherm revolutionized my experience on the trail thanks to a proper nights sleep (including on snow) - HOWEVER my first one was standard width, and my brain never fully shook the underlaying feeling that I was about to roll off (obligate side sleeper, so always a degree of instability). I did use my pack to my back to help ease this, but very suboptimal, especially in a small or shared tent. Getting the wide version was the final peg in giving me a warm stress free sleep - the increased weight was negligible for me in this case. Of course everyone’s mileage will vary wildly, but sometimes it’s the myriad little things that make the difference - I always recommend trying to find a friend or rental you can try your top 2-3 options in the field before sinking the dough :)

Consider the Therma rest Xtherm NXT wide. Fantastic pad. Plenty of R for cold weather. Half the weight of those Exped options.

Therm-a-Rest NeoAir Xtherm NXT MAX in size L https://preview.redd.it/adrxi4ds933f1.jpeg?width=1500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a380cabe37f19451709b6d8c96159f859ecbdf4

Holy shit!

It's 250€ in Europe

It depends on specifics. Three season is easy, winter season is another 60 degrees difference. Alaska winter gets to -30, Phoenix winter stay in the 20's (but hits +120 in summer). Two quilts, usually works (20/30+40/50). The tensor or xlite is probably good enough, the xtherm sucks in hot summer. I got an xtherm reg.wide max and used it 5 times, thinking the same thing as you, and swapped out. If you wanna buy it though, it's like new and I'd sell it for $160 shipped.

Thermarest neo air xtherm max

Late last summer I bought a Therm-a-Rest NeoAir XTherm NXT MAX Sleeping Pad for shoulder hikes in the same areas as you’re planning. Very happy and warm on a late Sept hike into Assiniboine last year with sub-zero C temps overnight, snow etc. A little heavy for UL purists maybe, but worth it for the comfort and warmth in my opinion. Also outside your budget slightly, but it might allow you to continue with your current bag for much of the season if you otherwise find it not quite warm enough with a colder sleeping pad.

I've used a Thermarest NeoAir XTherm sleeping pad, wide version, for a few years. No puncture issues, I think it had an R value of 5.7 at the time, now i see current models are 7.3. Weight is around 1 lb, and packs easily and compactly on the bike. The ground gets cold at high elevations, even down in the desert, don't skimp with this layer. I'm using an Enlightened Equipment 10 degree down quilt. My main tent is the BA Copper Spur 2-person tent, around 2.5 lbs. I leave the stuff sack at home, just stuff the tent and fly at the bottom of a pannier. Poles get stashed on top of my rack or in my harness at the handlebars. These are the normal poles, not the bikepacking version. I also have a first gen. Durston Xmid 1-person, but have yet to try it. I also bought his carbon fiber tent pole because who takes trekking poles bikepacking? None of these were purchased at full-price, thankfully.

Therm-a-Rest NeoAir XTherm MAX, which is perfect for cold weather, has an R-value of 6.9 and provides excellent warmth.

I had both. Initially had Xtherm, sold it for Nemo and went to RW Xtherm. Xtherm is definitely warmer and more reliable - it has 70D bottom and there is something about the technology that just make it more warm pad than Nemo. Many people report that Nemo is sleeps colder than it should be and I am one of them. Jupiter Hikes states that the Mylar layers are sticking/freezing together in the Nemo pad so you need to pat it a little bit. I took my Nemo to -5 degrees which is something it should handle pretty well but I was cold and I am a cold sleeper like you.  Comfort - do you prefer hard bed or you sleep well in extra soft hotel mattresses? I prefer hard bed so Xtherm is more comfortable for me, but more people prefer Nemo. To me it felt like I was sinking into the mattress and I am not a heavy person (65kg for reference).  If you are a side sleeper, consider switching to regular wide version as it has extra space for your knees. It weights more but hey, if you can get a better rest, you can walk more milage easily so it’s worth for me

Xlite has only 30D bottom so it’s less durable. How much of an actual difference there is between 30D and 70D fabric is beyond my knowledge but the more durable the better I guess.  Nemo is less noisy but I wound not call my Xtherm a noisy pad. These winter pads that use some kind of Mylar or reflective films will always be noisy to some degree but I find it okay 

I had both. Initially had Xtherm, sold it for Nemo and went to RW Xtherm. Xtherm is definitely warmer and more reliable - it has 70D bottom and there is something about the technology that just make it more warm pad than Nemo. Many people report that Nemo is sleeps colder than it should be and I am one of them. Jupiter Hikes states that the Mylar layers are sticking/freezing together in the Nemo pad so you need to pat it a little bit. I took my Nemo to -5 degrees which is something it should handle pretty well but I was cold and I am a cold sleeper like you.  Comfort - do you prefer hard bed or you sleep well in extra soft hotel mattresses? I prefer hard bed so Xtherm is more comfortable for me, but more people prefer Nemo. To me it felt like I was sinking into the mattress and I am not a heavy person (65kg for reference).  If you are a side sleeper, consider switching to regular wide version as it has extra space for your knees. It weights more but hey, if you can get a better rest, you can walk more milage easily so it’s worth for me

Ha, same. Started with the 'ol cheapo Klymit Static V, moved to the small mummy Therm-a-Rest XLite NeoAir for a couple years, then figured I'd get a wide to see if that helped with side sleep comfort so my butt and knees weren't off the edges (& went extra warm because may as well eliminate redundancies) with the Therm-a-Rest XTherm in reg wide. No dice. Tried a friend's Nemo Tensor, and wasn't for me. Tried the large women's Sea to Summit Comfort Light Insulated air - dimples felt odd and was too thin; no better than my old mummy xlite for overall comfort even with the wider shape. Running out of budget to throw in for the S2S Ether Light XT test and given my experience with the Comfort Light, wasn't convinced it was the move. Still haven't tried vertical baffles like the Expeds, and maybe that'd do fine, but instead just went all in on the reg wide chonky Neoloft... and good god. With that soft knit stretch top, slept a like the coziest dreamy log for 8.5 hours first time I took it out (and then 6 the next, but only thanks to a disruptive woodpecker. Nature!) I hesitate to mention/recommend it here as it kinda undermines the whole forum topic (ultralight) with its extremely-not-ultralight weight. But packs just as small as my reg-wide XTherm and as a bike camper, pack size matters more than strictly weight so I'm sticking with it.